Overview

Students learn about the difference and relationship between theoretical and experimental probability through several activities, including a game and an area model.

Objective

Students will be able to compute and describe theoretical probabilities for an event.

Standards Addressed

Mathematics — Data Analysis

Grade 5

Probability, Benchmark J

10. Compare what should happen (theoretical/expected results) with what did happen (experimental/actual results) in a simple experiment.

Probability, Benchmark K

11. Make predictions based on experimental and theoretical probabilities.

 

Grade 6

Probability, Benchmark K

07. Design an experiment to test a theoretical probability and explain how results may vary.

 

Grade 7

Probability, Benchmark K

08. Make predictions based on theoretical probabilities, design and conduct an experiment to test the predictions, compare actual results to predicted results, and explain differences.

 

Grade 8

Probability, Benchmark H

10. Calculate the number of possible outcomes for a situation, recognizing and accounting for when items may occur more than once or when order is important.

 

Materials

• Game tokens

Procedure

1. Give students the Checkout Game Directions handout, along with the game board. After reviewing the rules, divide the class into teams of two and hand out game tokens. Have students play the game four times. Discuss frequency tables and have them record their data on the Frequency Table handout as they play the game.

2. Give the students the Area Model worksheet to complete as a class or individually. Ask them to use this information and play the checkout game two more times with the same partner and add the outcomes to their frequency tables.

3. Have students figure experimental probability of various outcomes for their games. Have them compare with their partner from previous rounds. Combine all results to get class experimental probability of at least one outcome. Discuss how the greater the number of trials, the closer the experimental probability will be to the theoretical probability.

Evaluation

Evaluate the student handouts.